What polling shows about the top VP contenders for Kamala Harris

By Linley Sanders and Seung Min Kim

Aug. 1, 2024 9:40 AM PT

As Vice President Kamala Harris prepares to announce her running mate, a poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that several of the top contenders for the role are largely unknown to Americans. Arizona’s Sen. Mark Kelly stands out as one with more name recognition and higher favorability, particularly among Democrats.

The survey, which was conducted after President Biden announced he was withdrawing from the race and Harris became the likely Democratic presidential nominee, highlights the strengths and weaknesses that different politicians could bring to the ticket — and the challenges they could face if selected.

Kelly, while better known and liked than some alternatives, is still unfamiliar to about half of Americans. Someone like Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, while lesser known nationally, could draw support in their home states and regions. After the Harris campaign began vetting about a dozen names, Kelly and Shapiro emerged as two of the front-runners, according to people familiar with the process.

Harris said earlier this week that she had yet to decide on her No. 2. But she and the person she selects are expected to head out next week on a seven-state swing through key battlegrounds including Pennsylvania and Arizona.

Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly

Of the four Democrats mentioned in the poll as potential vice presidential nominees — Kelly, Shapiro, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper — Kelly has the highest name recognition and favorability, according to AP-NORC. Cooper removed himself from consideration after the survey.

Americans are more likely to have a positive view of Kelly than a negative view. The poll indicated that about 3 in 10 U.S. adults have a very or somewhat favorable view of him, and about2 in 10 have a negative view. Drawing more good feelings than bad is a relative rarity in presidential politics these days: Biden and former President Trump have been viewed more negatively than positively for several years now.

Like many of the other contenders, though, Kelly is nowhere near a household name. About half of Americans don’t know enough to have an opinion about him.

But Democrats are especially likely to have warm feelings about Kelly; the poll indicated 45% view him favorably. Only about 1 in 10 have an unfavorable view of him, according to the survey, and around 4 in 10 don’t know enough to say. Democrats age 45 and older are especially likely to view him positively, while younger Democrats are more likely to be unfamiliar with him.

Kelly is a battle-tested campaigner: He won a special election in 2020 to flip the Arizona U.S. Senate seat from Republican control, and was releected two years later to a full, six-year term.

The Navy veteran is a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and has been an influential voice among Democrats on immigration and border security, long a political vulnerability for Harris that Republicans are seeking to exploit.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro

Shapiro is broadly unknown to Americans and Democrats, except in the Northeast, where he has more name recognition and higher favorability. The poll indicates that 6 in 10 U.S. adults — including 57% of Democrats — don’t know enough to have an opinion about Shapiro. About 2 in 10 Americans view him favorably, and a similar share view him unfavorably.

The picture isn’t very different among Democratic voters. About one-fourth of those polled have a positive view of Shapiro, while 16% have a negative view. Older Democrats are more likely than younger ones to have a favorable opinion of Shapiro, but overall, most have yet to develop a view.

Shapiro was elected governor of the swing state in 2022, defeating Republican Doug Mastriano — a controversial figure who drew opposition and criticism from members of his own party, including Pennsylvania’s then-Sen. Patrick J. Toomey.

Unlike the other contenders asked about in the AP-NORC poll, though, he’s significantly better known — and liked — in his home region. In the Northeast, 4 in 10 U.S. adults surveyed have a favorable view of him. Another 4 in 10, roughly, said they don’t know enough to have an opinion of him, while about 2 in 10 Northeasterners view him negatively.

Philadelphia Democrat Gary Hines, 68, had high praise for his home-state governor, saying: “I’d hate to see him leave, because he’s just getting started in Pennsylvania.”

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear

If chosen, Beshear would need to introduce himself to most of the country. Around 7 in 10 Americans surveyed don’t know enough to have an opinion about him. Others are about evenly split: 17% of U.S. adults have a positive view, and 15% negative.

However, Democrats have a more positive than negative opinion of Beshear. About a quarter have a very or somewhat favorable view, while around 1 in 10 have a negative view. Nearly two-thirds don’t know enough about Beshear to give an opinion.

The scion of a well-known Democratic family in the state, Beshear beat then-Gov. Matt Bevin — a deeply unpopular figure, even in conservative Kentucky — then won reelection in 2023 against Republican Daniel Cameron, a longtime protégé of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Beshear’s victory last year was credited in part to his advocacy of abortion rights, including a campaign ad that featured a sexual assault survivor attacking Cameron for his stances.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz

Like the other governors being discussed, Walz doesn’t have much of a national profile — and that also means he’s a relatively blank slate. He wasn’t included in the AP-NORC poll, but a new ABC News/Ipsos poll, which asked about favorability slightly differently, found that about 9 in 10 U.S. adults don’t know enough to have an opinion on him. Among Americans with a view, opinions are split between positive and negative.

Walz, who also served for 12 years in the House, moved up on Harris’ shortlist in recent days after he coined “weird” as a new talking point to describe the Republican ticket. It’s a line now used widely by the vice president and other Democrats.

He currently leads the Democratic Governors Assn.

The AP-NORC poll of 1,143 adults was conducted July 25-29 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

Sanders and Kim write for the Associated Press. AP White House correspondent Zeke Miller contributed to this report.